In a highly anticipated showdown, cinematic powerhouses Universal’s *Wicked Part One* and Paramount’s *Gladiator II* are set to face off at the box office this weekend. The excitement spans across major cities from New York to Kansas City, all the way to Los Angeles, as cinephiles prepare to flock to theaters for what promises to be one of the richest weekends in 2023. With a previous benchmark for box office draw taking place in late July when *Deadpool* and *Wolverine* collectively drove the market to a staggering $285.3 million, the cinematic landscape appears primed for another major spike.
Early reports indicate that *Wicked* alone has made significant strides in its opening night, with an estimated $8 million raked in. Factoring in promotional events leading up to the weekend, including Amazon’s pre-sales and premium format shows, the cumulative preview revenue could soar to around $20 million. Initial figures suggest that pre-sales for *Wicked* reached approximately $30 million, emphasizing the film’s appeal among female moviegoers—traditionally a solid demographic in the box office arena.
Cautious projections put *Wicked’s* three-day weekend earnings in the $130 million to $150 million range. However, there remains some skepticism due to the movie’s extended runtime of 2 hours and 40 minutes, which may deter some potential viewers. For reference, Disney’s *The Lion King*, despite its own lengthy two-hour runtime, opened to a staggering $191.7 million, a record for a feature musical.
While *Wicked* holds the promise of overperforming this weekend—boasting a remarkable 90% certified fresh rating from critics and a 99% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes—its sheer marketing prowess certainly deserves applause. The promotional strategies utilized by Universal appear more robust than even those executed for *Star Wars: The Force Awakens*.
Analyzing historical data gives further insight into *Wicked’s* potential. For instance, Universal’s prior Broadway adaptation, *Mamma Mia!*, opened with $27.7 million, whereas its sequel, which diverged from its stage origins, garnered a higher $34.9 million. This sets a fascinating backdrop for *Wicked*, a property that promises to appeal to audiences familiar with the original Broadway hit.
Meanwhile, expectations for *Gladiator II* remain modest, with projections for its Thursday preview estimated between $6.5 million to $7 million. Unlike *Wicked*, Paramount did not incorporate significant preview days into its marketing strategy. Initial reviews depict a favorable reception for this Ridley Scott-directed sequel, landing at a certified fresh rating of 72% on Rotten Tomatoes. However, its financial performance might struggle to reach the anticipated $60 million mark over the weekend, drawing comparisons to *Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny*, which enjoyed a similar box office take.
As the weekend unfolds, the two films beckon diverse audiences to theaters, promising an intriguing battle for box office supremacy. Approximately 40% of *Wicked*’s preview earnings outperformed previous female-led successes, indicating a strong turnout for what is often seen as a festival of sorts for women in film. Meanwhile, the lesser visibility surrounding *Gladiator II* may also contribute to its underwhelming projections.
Ultimately, this weekend not only reflects commercial competition but also offers a glimpse into shifting audience preferences and the ways that marketing strategies can shape box office outcomes. As cinephiles don their finest witch attire and prepare to embrace both musicals and epic tales of valor, only time will reveal which film will emerge victorious from this clash of cinematic titans.