Disney’s animated powerhouse, Moana, is set to make waves once again with its much-anticipated sequel, Moana 2, which has recently landed on long-lead tracking. Analysts project a robust opening that shatters the $100 million barrier during its Thanksgiving week debut from Wednesday to Sunday, with expectations of earning approximately $75M to $82M over the Friday through Sunday period. According to the tracking service Quorum, these figures mark a significant rebound for Disney, especially considering that the original Moana (2016) managed an impressive $82 million over its opening weekend, eventually grossing a total of $248.7 million domestically.
This forecast is especially promising in the context of recent underwhelming performances from Disney during the Thanksgiving holiday, a time when the studio has typically ruled the box office with animated family films. The last major standout for Disney during this critical period was the release of Frozen 2 in 2019, which took in $125 million—the highest opening for any film released in this timeframe. Should Moana 2 meet or exceed these initial predictions, it will not only signify a turnaround for Disney but also set a new record for the biggest opening for a film premiering on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving.
In comparison, early predictions suggest that Moana 2 is tracking significantly higher than rival films such as Universal’s Wicked: Part One, projected at $67M to $74M, and Paramount’s Gladiator II, which is expected to earn between $42M and $47M. Notably, industry experts point out that Moana 2 is tapping into the “Frozen crowd,” particularly appealing to a young female demographic. Interestingly enough, male interest appears to lag behind, mirroring trends observed with Inside Out 2, which nevertheless debuted powerfully with $154.2 million, marking it as one of the largest domestic openings of 2024.
Marketing for Moana 2 has also been making substantial strides, with its initial trailer becoming the most-watched animated film teaser in Disney’s history—garnering 178 million views within 24 hours. This noteworthy achievement surpasses the trailers for both Inside Out 2 and Frozen 2, suggesting a strong positive reception from the target audience.
The excitement surrounding Moana 2 is not only based on impressive marketing and box office predictions but also on the talent behind the film. Directed by Dave Derrick Jr., Jason Hand, and Dana Ledoux Miller, the sequel promises to deliver a captivating and engaging storyline. The music—an integral part of the Moana experience—will be composed by a talented lineup of Grammy-winning artists, including Abigail Barlow, Emily Bear, Opetaia Foa’i, and Mark Mancina. Auli’i Cravalho will reprise her role as the title character, accompanied by Dwayne Johnson returning as the demigod Maui.
As the premiere dates approach, it’s essential to recognize that Moana 2 will be competing for IMAX screen time along with other major releases such as Wicked and Gladiator II. However, the early chatter suggests Disney’s continuation of the Moana saga might just capture the hearts of audiences, positioning it favorably in the bustling Thanksgiving box office race. The overall outlook could redefine Disney’s trajectory heading into the holiday season and beyond.