As the release of Universal’s cinematic adaptation of the beloved stage musical “Wicked” approaches, excitement is palpable. The film, set to premiere on November 22, has generated remarkable advance ticket sales on Fandango, marking it as the second-best year-to-date performer, trailing only behind the blockbuster success of Marvel’s “Deadpool & Wolverine.” The impressive figures suggest that audiences are eager to experience the musical’s transition from stage to screen.
Wicked’s advance ticket sales signal not just interest, but a genuine connection to the source material. Comparatively, Disney’s theatrical release achieved a remarkable first-day ticket sales figure of $96.1 million, with a mammoth three-day total of $211.4 million. This comparison demonstrates the intense competition within the industry, particularly as “Wicked” launches right before Thanksgiving—a strategic timing that could yield significant box office benefits.
The decision to shift “Wicked’s” release from the Wednesday before Thanksgiving to a direct confrontation with Paramount’s “Gladiator II” has sparked optimism within the industry. Cinematic analysts have speculated that this maneuver could trigger another “Barbenheimer” effect, reminiscent of the cultural phenomenon that saw “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” dominate the box office simultaneously. However, the anticipated success remains speculative until it unfolds.
The competitive release environment is crucial; the advance sales pattern reveals a growing trend for larger-than-life adaptations. By moving “Wicked” away from Disney’s “Moana 2,” Universal is not only avoiding direct competition but positioning the musical as a standout event amidst a crowded holiday season. The hope is that audiences will flock to theaters, eager to witness the magic of “Wicked” firsthand.
“Wicked” has also earned accolades as the best PG-rated first-day ticket pre-seller of 2024 on Fandango, and ranks as the third-best in the same category of all time, trailing only behind animated juggernauts “Frozen II” and 2019’s “The Lion King.” The previous releases accrued remarkable three-day totals of $130.2 million and $191.8 million, respectively. Such statistics illustrate “Wicked’s” potential to carve its own niche in box office history, setting a precedent for future adaptations.
While industry insiders often caution against quickly interpreting advance sales as definitive indicators of box office success, current trends indicate that presales are becoming more reliable predictors. In recent weeks, presales have suggested that films like “Joker: Folie a Deux” lag behind Warner Bros.’ “The Flash,” while “Terrifier 3” appears poised for an opening weekend of at least $11 million. These sales metrics reflect a broader shift in audience engagement and anticipation.
Jerramy Hainline, EVP of Fandango Ticketing, encapsulated the fervor surrounding “Wicked,” describing it as an impending “one-of-a-kind must-see theatrical event.” With fans undeniably enthusiastic, the potential triumph of “Wicked” at the box office is as much about nostalgia and cultural resonance as it is about the numbers themselves.
As “Wicked” approaches its highly anticipated release, the convergence of compelling pre-sales, strategic planning, and high viewer expectations paints a promising picture for Universal. The musical’s legacy may well be amplified through its cinematic iteration, capturing the imaginations of both loyal fans and new audiences alike.